By WAI MOE
As the junta’s deadline for the Border Guard Force (BGF) plan passes on Thursday, the largest of Burma's armed ethnic groups, the United Wa State Army (UWSA), which has upward of 20,000 troops, met this week with its allies to discuss the potential threats they face in the near future, sources close to the groups told The Irrawaddy.
“The ethnic groups have learned a lesson from the failure of their Kokang allies, and are preparing a united front against any threats to the development and stability of their territories,” said a source who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Since Naypyidaw first proposed transforming the various ethnic cease-fire groups into BGFs one year ago, groups such as the UWSA, the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), the Kokang army (officially called the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army), the Mongla-based National Democratic Alliance Army and the Shan State Army-North, have formed alliances with each other.
Following the Burmese army's seizure of the Kokang headquarters in Laogai, near the Chinese border, in August last year, the cease-fire groups have reportedly pledged to stand alongside one another if one group is attacked.
The Burmese army knows that with the UWSA involved, any conflict with the ethnic groups could potentially involve a lengthy and bloody campaign. A couple of days before the deadline, the UWSA sent a letter to the junta saying it rejects the BGF proposal.
According to sources, the Wa leadership reportedly said in the letter that their stance had not changed since their previous letter to Naypyidaw on April 3. It also said that the Burmese regime, or any other party, is welcome in the Wa region if they want to help create development and stability. However, anyone who “seeks to destroy” the region’s peace and development would be considered an enemy, they said.
Contrary to Naypyidaw's demands, the Wa leaders insisted that any BGF unit stationed in Wa territory must be headed by Wa commanders with Burmese army officers assigned to deputy commander positions. Furthermore, the UWSA proposed that general staff officers could be assigned from the Burmese army, but that all deputy staff officers must come from the UWSA. The Wa said it would allow six lower-ranking Burmese officers in each battalion, whereas the junta demanded 27 rank and file military personnel.
The junta rejected the Wa's terms on April 9 during a meeting between Wa leaders and a government delegation led by Lt. Col. Than Htut Thein, who is a general staff officer in the Triangle Regional Military Command, according to The Shan Herald Agency for News, which monitors affairs in Shan State.
Saengjuen Sarawin of The Shan Herald Agency for News said that both the Wa and the Burmese army are preparing for conflict. He said the Burmese have reinforced troops and military facilities in northern and southern Shan State, while the UWSA has done similarly in their own territory.
Another major ethnic cease-fire group, the KIO, based in northernmost Burma, was due to hold BGF negotiations with government officials on Thursday in Myitkyina, the capital of Kachin State. Burmese Prime Minister Gen Thein Sein and the chief of the Military Affairs Security, Lt-Gen Ye Myint, who is the chief negotiator with the cease-fire groups, are scheduled to attend the meeting.
The KIO is yet to announce its acceptance or rejection of the BGF proposal. The group proposed that Kachin troops join a “Union Defense Forces,” in the “spirit of Panglong,” referring to a 1947 agreement that granted the Kachin and other ethnic groups full autonomy and internal administration of frontier areas.
Kachin sources said KIO associates in Myitkyina could face retaliatory measures after the deadline passes, noting that a Kachin official was recently arrested in Myitkyina because he traveled to his family home without travel documents.
Analysts have said the BGF issue is posing a dilemma for the Burmese army as the generals’ proposal has failed to bear fruit.
Meanwhile, Chinese premier Wen Jaibao postponed his trip to Burma, Brunei and Indonesia, from April 22 to 25, due to the deathly earthquake in northwestern Qinghai Province, according to the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs Web site.
As the Chinese are traditionally and geographically close to the Wa, Beijing has repeatedly called for peaceful solutions on ethnic issues in Burma.
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